ETA is pushing any expectations of a truce far into the distance. It issued a communiqué demanding political conditions like self-determination in order to advance the hypothetical peace process. By planting more and more bombs, it called into question the Prime Minister’s stubborn determination to come to an understanding with the terrorists.

 

It is true that ETA is not killing. It doesn’t kill because, at this political juncture, not killing is more profitable. This does not mean it is renouncing murder in the future. In fact, it is already preparing for it. It has already managed to make a mockery of the Law of Parties by holding onto institutional representation in the Basque Parliament. It has also managed to break out of its social isolation thanks to the current Spanish government’s insistence on opening up a dialogue. It has recovered the strategic initiative, laying out both the negotiation and attack agenda. It has imposed internal discipline on its political wing and association of prisoners. Not bad after a year and a half operating under the Zapatero administration.

 

Its goal now is to get Batasuna to run in the next municipal elections. Having a presence in the Basque and Navarra city halls is a source of political legitimacy, strategy and financing the terrorists know they cannot do without. Moreover, ETA wants to its brand on the lists and not cheap substitutes, like the Communist Party of the Basque Lands, which only lower the quality of its political action.

 

To achieve this objective, the terrorists seem willing to continue not killing for a few more months. In the group’s current situation, this undeclared truce on lethal attacks is useful for trying to rebuild its battered operational and logistical infrastructure. In exchange, it is foreseeable ETA will increase the number of attacks to demonstrate its potential to the government, just in case it doesn’t give in to its demands.  

 

This puts the government in a difficult dilemma. On the one hand, it won’t be easy to allow Batasuna to run in the election without modifying the current Law of Parties. But Zapatero will have serious political trouble if he tries to carry out such a reform given PP’s firm opposition to any concessions to the terrorists and without a clear sign of progress to justify the move to public opinion. But if he fails to surrender to the terrorists’ demands, they could start a campaign of lethal attacks that would frustrate any hope of peace and reveal the Prime Minister’s terrible error in changing strategy in the fight against terror.