Teheran’s Islamic government has decided to break the seals placed on it by the Atomic Energy Agency technicians and continue its nuclear program without international restrictions. The consequences were not long in coming: the Europeans feel cheated and decided to take the matter to the National Security Council (the Spanish Foreign Affairs Minister spoke with Al Baradei in Vienna and asked for more time to convince Iran, accelerating his drift away from London, Paris and Berlin). However, the United Nations is not the solution to the problems posed by the Ayatollahs.

 

First, the United Nations is not the solution because Iran has bought the votes of two permanent members of the Security Council. Even if Russia were tempted to side with the Western group temporarily, China depends greatly on Iranian oil to sustain its economical growth. Therefore, it is more than probable that, in the absence of greater incentives, the Council will be able to agree on a way to repress Teheran.

 

Second, if we are optimistic and forget what the Council devolved into during the entire Iraq crisis, the most that can be expected is a political condemnation of Iraq (very important) and the imposing of some economic and diplomatic sanctions. If this comes to pass, it would be good to remember that embargos and technological sanctions make sense when the punished nation depends on foreign countries to reach its goals. This does not seem to be the case with Iran in relation to technologies needed to develop an atomic weapon. The explosives it is lacking can be manufactured as soon as its centrifuges start working. An embargo might hurt Iran’s capacity to sustain its program on a large scale and over the long term, but it will not prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons in the mid-term. There is simply no sanction that can stop Iran’s atomic program.

 

If, in addition, deliberations take time or are filled with requirements that must be met before moving forward, like in Iraq, Iran will work to keep dividing the members of the international community in order to draw out the debate about what to do while it speeds up its attempt to acquire nuclear capability as soon as possible.

 

The truth is that taking this matter to the United Nations is a waste of time. For Europeans, so scared of using force, it means gaining time to do nothing. But when the United Nations fails because the Ayatollahs will not be persuaded or dissuaded, where will the Europeans go in search for help?