The only place ETA’s ceasefire exists is in the “enlightened” mind of a man carried to the post of Prime Minister of Spain thanks to an historic accident. Any rational analysis reveals not a shred of evidence to support the idea that ETA is at all interested in calling a ceasefire at the moment –something that would cost the terrorist group a great deal and not gain it anything.

 

The cost of a truce is always high for a terrorist organization, especially in terms of credibility. For ETA a ceasefire requires the previous surrender of the State, a prize bestowed at the end of the process if all its conditions are met. The administration, on the other hand, needs ETA to “pre-pay” in order to recover the political capital it needs to continue down this path.

 

For the moment, ETA is the one getting all the free benefits. The terrorists have broken the political isolation and social disdain to which the Aznar administration had submitted it without having to even propose giving up their criminal activities. Moreover, ETA’s calculation is that its attacks are vital to speeding up the process of surrender Zapatero has set in motion.  

 

ETA keeps pushing the pace with its bombs. It is pursuing two goals. On the one hand, it is demonstrating it exists, that it has not been defeated. On the other hand, it is ensuring the business class, from which the terrorists extort their financing, stays scared.

 

As opposed to the administration’s constant media leaks about a coming truce, our analysis is that ETA will step up its bombing campaign over the next few months. The terrorists are fully aware they have the Prime Minister cornered and are not going to stop beating him up until they get what they want: self-determination, the annexation of the province of Navarra, impunity for their murderers and, as a result, historic justification for their crimes.  

 

The terrorists know the Prime Minister’s hopes for peace have placed him in a vulnerable position –just one killing would be enough to destroy him politically. Zapatero has already shown he would rather sell out his country than lose power. ETA won’t let this historic opportunity to defeat Spanish democracy slip past –an opportunity that, paradoxically, came knocking at ETA’s weakest moment and when it thought all was lost.