The start of Turkish accession talks provided a faint glimmer of hope for unfreezing the Cyprus stalemate that has prevailed since the Greek Cypriots voted down a UN-sponsored settlement plan in 2004. However, the negotiations could be blocked unless Turkey fully implements its customs union agreement with the EU by allowing Greek Cypriot ships into its ports. Turkey has refrained from doing so because the EU has not fulfilled its pledge to restore trade links with Northern Cyprus. A prolonged stand-off would only make the search for a comprehensive settlement even more difficult. Neither the EU nor Turkey should think of postponing an effort to sort out the Cyprus problem until later in the accession process. The risk of the Greek Cypriot administration vetoing Turkish membership would remain, and that would prevent a reunification of the island in the long term. The EU can help to avoid this risk by supporting separate solutions to the ports and trade questions, while at the same time supporting longer term eff o rts to find a comprehensive settlement.

Th is report investigates the opportunities within common European Security and Defence Policies arising from the 2004 EU Enlargement with 10 new Member States and the limitations that can be expected to be at work. The enlargement will influence EU decision making in the field of the Common Foreign and Security Policy, specifi cally the European Security and Defence Policy, and may modify its geographical and functional focus. The descriptive analysis rests on interviews with policy and decision makers in Brussels as well as on European research networks. Predictive analysis points in the direction of an expanded global role of the EU involving all Member States, in combination with an international division of labour. Th e conclusions of this report foresee continued development of integrated civilian and military capabilities and methods of crisis management. However, the proclaimed global role of the EU depends to a large extent on the European ability to generate sufficient resources to overcome shortfalls in enabling factors of the ESDP. Th e most probable fi rst consequence of the EU enlargement eastwards might be a higher priority of the ESDP with the new neighbouring areas to the East and Southeast.