The government of President Kurmanbek Bakiyev has struggled to establish its authority since coming to power following the ouster of President Askar Akayev in March 2005.1 Akayev’s sudden removal ushered in a period of chaos and low-level violence as rivals scrambled to control the country’s limited resources. The power vacuum resulting from the regime’s collapse created new opportunities for criminals to expand their influence into politics.

The ousting of President Askar Akaev in March, ending his increasingly authoritarian fourteen-year rule, was a major step, but as Kyrgyzstan heads toward July presidential elections, the risk of instability remains high. New leaders need to undertake serious reform to redress imbalances created by Akaev's centralisation of power and weak state institutions. They must also confront a looming economic crisis, a wave of land seizures, criminal groups that pose a growing security risk, and, ultimately, the north-south split.

If the revolution is unsuccessful, it will not be because the masses in Central Asia failed to make the grade, but because the ruling elite in Kyrgyzstan managed to sabotage the process of political change.